Samsung SoC Shipments Forecast to Grow in 2026 Amid Market Contraction
While the global smartphone chipset market faces a projected downturn in 2026, Samsung appears poised to buck the trend. Recent forecasts indicate the South Korean tech giant is the only major vendor expected to increase its System-on-Chip (SoC) shipments during a year marked by broader industry contraction.
Market-Wide Slowdown Expected
Overall smartphone SoC shipments are projected to decline by approximately 7% year-over-year in 2026. This slowdown is expected to affect all four of the largest mobile chipset vendors, with each forecast to ship fewer chips compared to the previous year. The primary driver behind this contraction appears to be sharply rising memory prices, which have increased smartphone manufacturing costs across all market segments.
As device manufacturers pass these higher costs to consumers through price increases, fewer consumers are expected to upgrade their smartphones, particularly in the entry-level segment. This reduced demand for new devices directly translates to lower demand for the chipsets that power them, creating a challenging environment for chipset vendors.
Samsung's Counter-Trend Growth
Despite the broader market contraction, Samsung's smartphone SoC shipments are projected to increase by around three percentage points in 2026. This makes the company the only major vendor expected to achieve growth during this period of market slowdown.
The anticipated growth appears to be driven by Samsung's strategic adoption of its Exynos 2600 SoC for upcoming flagship devices in many regions. Additionally, the company's continued use of Exynos chipsets in its mid-range smartphone lineup may contribute to stronger sales of these devices, further boosting chipset shipments.
Competitive Landscape Shifts
The market contraction is expected to affect competitors differently. MediaTek, as the dominant supplier of entry-level chipsets, is projected to experience the most significant decline with shipments expected to fall by approximately eight percentage points. Qualcomm's shipments are forecast to decrease by about two percentage points, while Apple's SoC shipments are expected to decline by roughly one percentage point.
Samsung's projected growth could potentially increase revenue for Samsung Foundry, which manufactures the Exynos chipsets. This development represents a notable shift in the competitive dynamics of the smartphone chipset market, where one vendor appears positioned to gain market share while others face contraction.
Conclusion
The 2026 smartphone chipset market presents a complex picture of contraction and selective growth. While rising memory prices and reduced consumer demand create headwinds for most vendors, Samsung's strategic positioning with its Exynos chipsets appears to provide insulation from these challenges. The company's projected shipment growth, while modest, represents a significant achievement in a declining market and could signal shifting competitive dynamics in the years ahead.
As the industry navigates these changing conditions, Samsung's ability to maintain growth while competitors contract will be closely watched by industry observers and could influence future strategic decisions across the smartphone ecosystem.